1. Electrical machines: purpose and classification
An electric machine is an electromagnetic mechanical device that converts and transmits energy through the interaction of electricity and magnetism.
In a broad sense, electrical machines include motors and generators. The engine receives electrical energy and transmits mechanical energy; Various motors are widely used in industries and household appliances, mainly for driving mechanical equipment.
The generator receives mechanical energy and produces electrical energy. The development of generators and related equipment makes it possible to obtain electricity from thermal, hydraulic, nuclear, wind, solar energy and biomass, providing economic sectors and urban and rural populations.
Typically, the word “electric machine” in this context refers to an electric motor. Despite the differences in design, it usually consists of a fixed, rotating and auxiliary part. The fixed part combines the housing, frame, stator core and winding, end covers, base and other magnetically conductive, current-carrying and supporting elements.
The rotating part includes the shaft, core, rotor support and winding, slip rings, commutator and fan. Accessory parts include bearings, brushes and coolers. The variety of models, sizes, power, shaft ends and insulation determines the many types of electrical machines.
According to industry practice, motors are classified, on the one hand, according to the height of the axis into large, small and medium and micromotors, and on the other hand, according to special characteristics into standard and special.
Because midsize and small engines have many similarities in manufacturing technology and end users, the industry typically lums them together under the category of small and midsize engines.
According to the program for increasing the energy efficiency of engines for 2013–2015, published in June 2013 by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Directorate of Quality Control, Inspection and Quarantine, according to energy efficiency, engines are divided into high-efficiency and conventional.
In the context of increasing resource constraints, leading developed countries consider increasing engine efficiency as an important energy saving measure.
In 2008, the International Electrotechnical Commission IEC established a single worldwide classification of motor energy efficiency (see Table 1) and standardized test methods.
In the US, high-efficiency engines have been mandatory since 1997, ultra-efficient ones since 2011; Europe also began mandating the introduction of high-efficiency engines in 2011. China issued GB18613-2006 and then revised it to IEC; GB18613-2012 came into force on September 1, 2012.
By this standard, the vast majority of engines produced in China were not classified as high efficiency engines, requiring them to meet or exceed the GB18613-2012 energy efficiency rating. To accelerate industrial energy saving, transform the development model and achieve the mandatory goals of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, it is necessary to significantly improve the energy efficiency of engines.
The world's electrical engineering industry traces its history back to the manual DC disk generator created by the British M.
Faraday in 1831, that is, more than 180 years. The Chinese industry dates back more than a century to the manufacture of Wimshurst generators and other educational electrical and magnetic instruments by the Tianjin Teaching Aids Factory in 1905.
Before the formation of the People's Republic of China, equipment, technology, product level and production capacity were significantly inferior to the world's. At the Shanghai factories Qian Yong Ji, Huasheng and Huacheng, the most powerful engines had only 200–300 kW.
For more than 60 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the industry has gone from small to large scale, from weakness to strength, from lagging behind to leading positions, consistently relying on imports, the introduction of technologies, their development and repeated innovation, and then its own developments. After the initial economic recovery in the early years of the PRC
Among the 156 projects of the five-year plan were electrical engineering ones. Shanghai, Harbin, Xiangtan, Jiamus, Lanzhou, Shenyang and other supporting factories were successively created. The rapid development of power generation, transmission and distribution has contributed to the growth of the industry. A complete production and business system has been formed, and the product range, sizes, characteristics and volumes mainly meet the needs of the Chinese economy.
The installed capacity of small and medium-sized engines in China has reached 1.6 billion kW; the country has become a major global producer, consumer and exporter of such engines.
2. Industry scale and growth
The industry as a whole has been growing over the past ten years. AC motors make up the vast majority of output, so their development and growth rates largely reflect the position of the industry as a whole.
(1) Industry size and growth rate
According to the National Statistics Bureau, from 2001 to 2013, the output of AC motors in China increased from 62.6327 to 279.1460 million kW per year, with an average annual growth of 13.26%. In 2012, the increase compared to 2011 was 5.0235 million kW, or 1.99%; in 2013 - 22.234 million kW, or 8.65%. The market continued to grow steadily.
(2) Scale and growth of small and medium engines
According to experts from the Small and Medium Motor Division of the China Electrical Industry Association, the total revenue of the 77 reference enterprises accounted for was about 60% of the industry.
On this basis, the revenue of the Chinese small and medium engine industry in 2013 was estimated at 100 billion yuan. Many enterprises also produce large and micromotors and other electrical equipment; For example, Wolong's statistics included real estate and large motors, while Xiangtan Electric mainly produced wind turbines and large motors, the revenue from which was included in the small and medium category.
After excluding these sales, the size of China's small and medium engine industry in 2013 was estimated to be at least 60 billion yuan.
According to the forecast of the Shanghai Electrical Engineering Research Institute, the total output of pole enterprises was expected to increase from 159.20 million kW in 2010 to 259.20 million kW in 2020, by 62.81%. The production of individual types and its growth are given below:
The main factors driving demand for engines in China are:
1) International relocation of production
Due to labor costs and other factors, developed countries are gradually shifting engine production to developing countries. China has become the world's manufacturing base; ABB, SIEMENS, GAMESA and other well-known manufacturers have established production centers here.
2) Global economic recovery and Chinese economic growth
The US economy has begun to improve, Europe is gradually recovering, and China is moving from high growth to moderate growth with an emphasis on quality. Going forward, China will increase investment in energy conservation, environmental protection, infrastructure, public welfare and consumption. The growth of the global economy will provide space for long-term sustainable development of the industry.
3) Structural renovation and replacement of low-performing products
The State Plan for the Development of Energy Saving and Environmental Protection for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan provides for the widespread introduction of small and medium-sized three-phase asynchronous motors of the first and second energy efficiency classes and increasing the efficiency of systems.
The Engine Energy Efficiency Program 2013–2015 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Directorate of Quality Control, Inspection and Quarantine supports the development and implementation of efficient engines, industry modernization and overall efficiency improvements. Massive retirement of obsolete engines is driving demand.
Higher standards also contribute to industry consolidation, enhancing the advantages of companies engaged in the research and production of high-performance engines.
3. Future development trends
The industry, especially small and medium motors, is characterized by a large number of models and types, diverse consuming industries and huge power consumption. This creates trends for high efficiency, specialization and individual execution.
(1) High efficiency and energy saving
Optimization of electromagnetic and mechanical design, new materials, equipment and technologies reduce copper, magnetic, additive and mechanical losses and improve energy conversion. Small and medium motors are used in many industrial applications; Increasing their efficiency is important for energy savings, enterprise efficiency and environmental protection and is one of the ways to achieve energy saving and emissions reduction goals.
Rapid economic growth has made China a major energy consumer.
At a conference in Copenhagen, the government announced a reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 by 40–45% compared to 2005 levels. The Twelfth Five-Year Plan provided for a decrease in these indicators by 16% and 17%.
In the national contribution presented before the Paris conference, China outlined peaking CO2 emissions around 2030, with an attempt to do so earlier, and reducing the carbon intensity of GDP by 60–65% by 2005. Ecological civilization should become an important part of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan with the principles of innovation, coordination, environmental friendliness, openness and sharing of results.
Technological and institutional innovations, optimization of industrial structure, low-carbon energy, green buildings, transport and the national carbon market should create a model for the harmonious development of man and nature.
Increasing the efficiency of energy production, transmission and consumption makes it possible to reduce the energy intensity of GDP while continuing to grow.
Electricity accounts for more than 50% of energy consumption, and motors account for more than 50% of total energy consumption. Therefore, increasing their efficiency is necessary for energy saving policies.
Motors and drive systems have become one area with great potential. Governments and organizations are developing solutions, guidelines, standards and regulations for various applications and industries and creating environmentally friendly products.
Examples are the uniform IEC standards for efficiency and testing, the European EuroDEEM, the American MMASTER and the EU ecodesign program. China's support for efficient motors and systems and the full implementation of strict environmental regulations make high- and ultra-efficient small and medium-sized motors, variable-speed motors and permanent-magnetic motors, energy-saving systems and green technology a natural development direction.
(2) Specialization and customization
Consumers of small and medium engines work in the metallurgy, energy, petrochemical, mining, construction materials, utilities and water industries. Their need for energy efficiency and specialization drives them to create professional, efficient products. The custom development of explosion-proof, variable frequency and two-speed motors improves customer efficiency while strengthening the manufacturer's development, core competencies and industry position.
To improve end-user energy efficiency, it is not enough for manufacturers to supply specialized universal motors to pump, fan and compressor manufacturers. It is necessary to participate in the design and research of their products and develop appropriate engines according to the required characteristics. Such participation improves product market adoption and strengthens collaboration with consumers, helping to maintain and expand market share.
(3) Intelligent automation
The world's leading drive systems already integrate diagnostics, protection, control and communication, providing self-diagnosis, self-protection, automatic speed control and remote control. The transition of Chinese mechanical engineering to higher, precise and advanced technologies and the convergence of industrialization and informationization make intelligent systems an inevitable trend.
More and more enterprises are accepting research into motor, load and control system matching, optimized design and energy-saving control of industrial small and medium drives. Motors and systems with internal feedback, energy-saving control of dual-power machines, phase energy-saving control, and efficiency analysis and control software are being developed. Integrated design and manufacturing of control, sensors and actuator allows different modes and loads to be taken into account.
(4) Comprehensive integration
The development and application of power electronics, computer and microelectronic technology and control theory are expanding the areas of use of small and medium-sized motors. To perform efficiently, efficiently and economically, they interact with computers, controllers, power converters and sensors and are often integrated with downstream actuators and loads: mechanical, hydraulic and pneumatic devices.
In this way, the engine becomes not a separate actuator component, but a complete mechatronic system with a given function.
ABB, Siemens and Mitsubishi have evolved from motor manufacturers to renowned suppliers of motors and control systems, expanding their range of frequency converters, soft starters and other controls. This provided technological and competitive advantages and significant market share.
Some Chinese manufacturers are already researching drive control, system integration, optimal parameter matching and integrated control and are releasing fairly mature products.
The engines are widely used in metallurgy, energy, petrochemistry, coal and mining industries, production of building materials, paper, utilities and water management, shipbuilding and port transshipment. They are needed wherever electrical energy is converted into mechanical energy or vice versa, which determines the huge market capacity.
According to generally accepted international estimates, the installed power of engines is 2.5–3.5 times higher than the power of generators.
Going forward, Chinese output should continue to grow. By 2020, the projected generation capacity was 1kW per person versus 3kW in the USA and installed engine capacity was about 4.5 billion kW, compared to the then level of about 1.2 billion kW.
More than 3 billion kW of new capacity created a large market for efficient and special engines. Demand is divided into incremental - new annual installations - and replacement, that is, replacing old engines with new ones, especially energy-saving ones.
AC motors make up the bulk of the market, so their output can be roughly used as an indicator of the industry as a whole.
According to the statistical office, in 2001–2013, the production of AC motors increased from 62.6327 to 279.1460 million kW per year, an average of 13.26% annually.
The industry is closely related to GDP growth. With the global economy slowing, China was under pressure from slowdowns and inflation; The planned average GDP growth of the twelfth five-year plan was reduced to 7%.
Insufficient demand and relative excess capacity slowed industry growth to negative levels. However, in the long term, China remained in a stage of rapid development.
Urbanization and equipment renewal have steadily increased the demand of the metallurgy, steel, cement, energy and shipbuilding industries. The introduction of efficient small and medium-sized engines provided leading enterprises with opportunities for rapid growth.
Conservatively, the average annual increase in variable engine output over the next five years was estimated at more than 7%. When calculating at 7% and a ten-year average of 13.26%, output in five years was predicted to be in the range of 392–520 million kW per year.
According to statistics from the association's small and medium motor division in 2013, DC motors accounted for only 2.93% of the output of supporting enterprises and were gradually replaced by variable current motors.
However, they provide good control, uniform, smooth, stepless speed change over a wide range under heavy loads and high starting torque with economical control. Therefore, they are often used in large reversing rolling mills and winches.
Although a frequency converter allows a variable drive to achieve a similar result, permanent motors, especially large ones, retain advantages in overall reliability and economic viability. Sophisticated converters to replace them have long been supplied mainly by GE, SIEMENS, ABB and TMEIC.
Despite the price reduction, the cost remained approximately 3 times higher than DC systems, and the price/performance ratio was low. Maintenance and repair require skilled personnel, which small and medium-sized Chinese enterprises typically do not have, so faults are not always corrected quickly and widespread adoption has not occurred.
Specialized, large and efficient DC motors remain a market opportunity.
According to statistics from the association's supporting enterprises, in 2013 the output of DC motors amounted to 5.061 million kW, 1.069 million kW, or 17.44%, less than the previous year.
According to the State Statistical Office, in 2001–2013, the output of generating equipment increased from 13.3935 to 127.3520 million kW per year with an average annual increase of 20.64%.
China's wind resource development remains generally low, and the untapped potential is enormous.
Increasing unit capacity has become an international trend. With the development of offshore wind energy, commercial operation of 3–6MW units began.
Since 2010, the industry has entered a period of industrial and policy adjustment; After the peak, the growth rate decreased. Excess capacity, low-price competition and foreign anti-dumping and countervailing measures led to a continued decline in new installations in 2012.
In China, 12,960MW was then added - 26.5% less than the previous year. As generation constraints and connectivity issues eased, a recovery began in 2013, with the Wind Energy Association's preliminary estimate of 16,100MW of new installations, up 24% from 2012.
The total capacity exceeded 90 million kW. In 2013, wind power overtook nuclear power to become China's third source of electricity for the first time.
Policy implementation and structural adjustment should support further growth.
Gasification generation of biomass is cleaner than direct combustion and emits almost no harmful gases.
It is suitable for distributed use of biomass, requires less investment and has low generation costs, which is especially useful for developing countries. The global installed capacity has exceeded 50 million kW and can replace more than 90 million tons of fuel equivalent.
In the leading USA, the capacity exceeds 10,000MW, more than 40% renewable generation. In China, the share of biomass among renewable capacity is only 0.5% against the global average of 25%, which creates broad prospects.
The demand for engines in developing countries is growing rapidly. China and India in particular, as well as the fast-growing BRICS countries of South Africa, Brazil and Russia, have maintained strong economic growth in recent years. Infrastructure and related production generated great demand.
Main areas of market demand:
1) Demand of new industrialization
China's rapid industrial growth has faced resource and environmental constraints. The pattern of high energy consumption and emissions has become unsustainable, and the industry is moving towards resource conservation and sustainability. The report of the 18th Party Congress outlined a new path of industrialization: high technological content and economic efficiency, low resource consumption and pollution, full use of the advantages of human resources.
The global financial crisis slowed China's growth and simultaneously created the conditions for accelerated new industrialization. Structural changes, modernization and energy conservation require a large number of efficient engines with high unit power, expanding the industry market.
2) Demand energy saving
High-efficiency engines combine economic and societal benefits and have become an industry priority, presenting unprecedented opportunities and challenges. With the implementation and strengthening of implementation policies, they are expected to grow rapidly. The comprehensive energy saving and emission reduction program of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan dated August 31, 2011 provides for budget subsidies for efficient engines and an increase in the operating efficiency of systems by 2-3 percentage points by 2015. In addition to new installations, there is a strong demand for replacing traditional engines that are already running, even those that have not reached the end of their service life.
Energy saving, environmental protection and ecological civilization are important themes of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection estimates that annual investment in environmental protection could increase to about 2 trillion yuan, and total public investment could exceed 17 trillion. Investments in energy saving and ecology could more than double the previous five-year period.
Rising costs of labor and materials reduce the effect of passive emissions reduction by closing obsolete facilities. The main means are updating equipment, technologies and increasing the technical level of products.
PetroChina, Sinopec, the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and other enterprises and projects announced large-scale purchases of efficient engines and the accelerated withdrawal of energy-intensive and old machines.
3) Foreign markets
The global market continues to be dominated by a few large multinational companies: GE, SIEMENS, ABB and TMEIC, with advanced design and manufacturing technologies.
China's exports accounted for about 10% of total engine output. Foreign suppliers often charge high prices.
China has a labor cost advantage and government support for its own innovation and industrial upgrading. The focus on research and technological breakthroughs is gradually closing the gap.
Driven by demand, innovation is once again intensifying, self-sufficiency in high-quality products is growing, and large local manufacturers are gaining initial opportunities to compete with international leaders.
In the US and other developed countries, the number of traditional engine manufacturers is gradually declining, while imports are increasing, creating opportunities for China, which could become the world's engine manufacturing center in the future. Rapid growth in demand from developing countries, especially India, South Africa, Brazil and Russia, is driven by economics, infrastructure and allied manufacturing and is fueling Chinese exports.
(2) Market supply
Manufacturers in China are divided into state-owned, including state-controlled, foreign, including foreign-controlled, and private. Small and medium-sized engines are dominated by public and private enterprises; foreigners contributed only to a certain extent to the improvement of technology and production volumes.
China's economy has gradually moved from double-digit growth to steady growth of around 7%. Industrial and macroeconomic policies have set the direction for small and medium-sized engines. At the same time, imbalance, inconsistency and instability appeared: excess capacity of low and medium levels, slowdown pressure and difficulties in exporting; difficult restructuring of the assortment and resistance to the introduction of effective products; fluctuations in raw materials, rising labor costs and declining profits. Increasing the technical level and removing obsolete capacities have become the general guideline of the industry.
Conventional engines are produced by many enterprises with small individual shares.
The concentration is low, but growing. There are about 2,000 small and medium engine manufacturers in China, of which about 300 are of significant scale; they are concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong and Fujian.
According to the association's statistics, Wolong Electric Group, Zhuhai Kaibang Motor and Shandong Huali Motor Group were the leaders in terms of revenue in 2014; for export production - Wolong, Fujian Anbo Motor Group and Zhejiang Jinlong Motor; on the cumulative introduction of efficient engines - Wolong, Jiangsu Small and Medium Motor and Zhejiang Jinlong Motor. The industry continues to consolidate.
According to the core enterprise data, which includes group revenues from large motors, electrical equipment and real estate, total revenues rose from 32.990 billion yuan to 54.05 billion yuan in 2007-2012. The shares of the three and ten leading participants grew and in 2012 reached 50.30% and 73.90%, respectively.
Small and medium engines have axle heights of 80–630mm. As the main components for converting electrical energy into mechanical energy, they are widely used in pumps, fans and compressors, which are closely related to the economy. These types of equipment are common in public life and constitute an important part of electricity consumption, so their efficiency has a significant impact on overall energy efficiency. Efficiency is an important indicator of the technical level of such engines.
The key to high efficiency is reducing the engine’s own losses: in steel, copper, mechanical and additional, to obtain mechanical power at the output.
Major manufacturers of small and medium-sized engines typically reduce losses in the following ways:
(1) Low harmonic stator windings reduce copper and additive losses. Improving the shape of the magnetomotive force reduces the additional losses and losses in the stator and rotor windings. Vacuum impregnation of the winding with a solvent-free insulating varnish increases electrical strength, reduces heating and energy consumption, and increases service life.
Optimized electromagnetic calculation and selection and adjustment of the shape of the stator and rotor slots ensure rational distribution of induction in the teeth and yoke and coordination of loads, minimizing losses in copper and steel. High-quality cold-rolled electrical steel with high permeability and low losses reduces magnetic losses and electrical load, increasing efficiency.
(2) Rational modern ventilation reduces mechanical losses. The conical casing and conical guide fan provide sufficient air flow with low ventilation losses and friction, effectively cool and reduce mechanical noise.
Reduced losses and increased efficiency reduce heat and the required cooling air flow, allowing the use of a smaller fan diameter. This further reduces mechanical energy consumption and increases efficiency.
(3) Effective technological measures reduce incremental losses. Along with the correct combination of stator and rotor slots and the bevel of the slots, the air gap is adjusted and additional processing of the manufactured rotor is carried out, reducing and controlling additional losses.
The electrical engineering industry supplies drive components to OEMs and generally has strong business performance. The gross margins of listed Wolong Electric, Xinzhi Motor, Dayang Motor, Zhongdian Motor and Jinlong Electromechanical were stable with slight growth from 2012 to 2014. Its main reason was the general decline in the prices of electrical steel, copper and aluminum ingots over the previous three years, which created room for profits.
Over the years of development, the industrial base, structure and scale of the industry have been formed, and entry barriers have increased significantly. In high-efficiency engines they are particularly high due to technical complexity, complex manufacturing, significant initial investment and reliability requirements. The main barriers to entry are:
First, complex design and technology require interdisciplinary knowledge. Designers, technologists, inspectors, testers and workers must have serious training and experience. Manufacturing uses a variety of large, specialized and complex machines, placing high demands on the technical workforce of new entrants.
Secondly, end consumers demand reliability and responsive service, increasing their requirements for pre-sales testing and after-sales support. A qualified production, quality control and service team is required.
Technology is advancing rapidly; Manufacturers must embrace advanced design, manufacturing and processes in a timely manner and implement new technologies, materials and equipment. It is difficult for new enterprises to simultaneously provide technological monitoring and in-house development.
The engines are used in metallurgy, energy, petrochemistry, coal and mining industries, construction materials and paper production, public utilities and water management, shipbuilding and port transshipment. Different applications and environments have different requirements. It usually takes a long time to accumulate experience to enter different areas. Mature successful experience and reliable products in a specific field allow us to consistently gain a significant share.
Reliability and suitability for the task are important selection factors. End consumers prefer manufacturers with experience and brand in the desired field. New competitors without such accumulation face tougher competition.
Engine production requires large investments in fixed assets, especially production, testing and inspection equipment. Setting up equipment and processes and generating capacity takes a long time, usually years. Products also need a long period of market validation, so sufficient working capital is required. High financing and depreciation costs, capital intensity, and operating with high financial leverage create a cash barrier for new businesses.
Motors drive fans, pumps, compressors, machine tools and conveyors and are widely used in metallurgy, petrochemicals, chemistry, coal mining, building materials and utilities.
They consume 64% of all electricity, and in industry - 75% of industrial consumption. An increase in their efficiency by one percentage point allows saving about 26 billion kWh annually.
Therefore, increasing efficiency has become an important way to save energy. The August 2013 program of the Ministry of Industry set product renewal goals by 2015: 50% of low-voltage three-phase squirrel-cage motors and 40% of high-voltage motors must meet efficient standards; introduce 170 million kW of efficient engines, remove 160 million kW of low-efficiency ones, modernize 100 million kW of systems and effectively rehabilitate 20 million kW of retired machines.
On this basis, the demand for efficient engines and related equipment is estimated to be close to 100 billion yuan.
Motors drive fans, pumps, compressors, machine tools and conveyors in metallurgy, petrochemicals, chemistry, coal industry, building materials and utilities. The situation in these industries is positively related to economic growth and investment in fixed capital. China's continued rapid growth and industrialization have provided the basis for the sustainable development of small and medium-sized engines.
Large customers including Shanghai Kaiquan Pump Group, Shimge Pump Industry Group and Nanfang Pump Industry have become the world's leading pump manufacturers over the years, promoting the relocation of pump production to China. Large foreign manufacturers with Chinese factories need engine suppliers with a wide range and comprehensive supplies for centralized procurement of several models. This encourages product expansion and simultaneously creates opportunities for scale-up.
Large international manufacturers, thanks to their technology and reputation, occupy a large part of the foreign market, but often have high prices. Improvements in Chinese technology and performance and favorable price-quality ratio are increasing foreign orders and the share of Chinese engines abroad.
The number of traditional engine manufacturers in the EU, US and other developed countries is decreasing, while imports are increasing, opening up great opportunities for China to become a global manufacturing center. Demand from other developing countries is also growing rapidly: growth in the economy, infrastructure and related industries creates a need for engines and stimulates Chinese exports.
Leading foreign manufacturers widely use highly automated lines and machining centers that provide high productivity and reliability. In terms of automation and intelligence of production and control equipment, the company still has a certain gap with the advanced international level.
Because efficiency improvement in China has lagged behind Europe, Australia and the United States, training in the design and improvement of small and medium-sized efficient engine technology has developed later, and scientific and technical personnel are insufficient. This personnel shortage is the main obstacle to increasing the company's key competitiveness and participation in international competition.
Motors, as widely used industrial products, serve a variety of industries. In general, enterprises are little dependent on seasonal fluctuations in demand in one region and do not have a pronounced seasonality.
In the long term, the industry cycle follows the macroeconomics: rapid growth increases demand and improves the situation, a slowdown or recession reduces demand and worsens it.
China remains in the middle stage of industrialization and continues on a new industrial path.
The global economy is recovering slowly; growth is below expectations, potential growth is declining, trade and investment are weak. A simultaneous slowdown of several sources of growth and stagnation are possible.
Full recovery of the global economy may be long and difficult. However, China's transition from policy stimulation to self-sustaining growth, the restructuring of heavy industry, modernization, energy conservation and the environmental requirements of new industrialization allow us to expect a long upward industrial cycle.
The industry does not have any pronounced regionalism. Relatively more manufacturers are located in the east, north, northeast and southwest of China; the densest concentration is on the east coast.
